FOCUS ON AG
August 15, 2022
USDA REPORT UPDATES 2022 CORN AND SOYBEAN ESTIMATES
The August 12 USDA Crop Report projected a decreased average U.S. corn yield in 2022 compared to last year; however, USDA is estimating an increased 2022 national average soybean yield compared to 2021. The projected 2022 national average corn yield levels was reduced from the July USDA estimates, while the soybean yield estimate was increased slightly from a month earlier. The August yield and production projections were based on a National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) survey of over 15,000 crop producers in early August on crop conditions as of August 1. The August USDA corn yield projection was very close to the average estimates by grain marketing analysts, while USDA soybean yield projections were slightly above grain industry estimates.
The August 12 USDA Crop Report estimated the 2022 total U.S. corn production at 14.36 billion bushels, which would be a decrease of 5 percent from the 2021 production level of just over 15.1 billion bushels. The 2022 projected U.S. corn production also compares to 14.1 billion bushels in 2020, 13.6 billion bushels in 2019, 14.4 billion bushels in both 2018 and 2017 and the current record U.S. corn production of 15.2 billion bushels in 2016. USDA is estimating 2022 total U.S. corn acreage harvested for grain at 81.8 million acres, which compares to 85.4 million acres in 2021.
The latest Crop Report projects the national average corn yield in 2022 at175.4 bushels per acre, which is a decline of 1.6 bushels per acre from the NASS yield estimate in July. This compares to the record U.S. corn yield of 177 bushels per acre in 2021, 172 bushels per acre in 2020, 167.4 bushels per acre in 2019, 176.4 bushels per acre in 2018, and 176.6 bushels in 2017. There is a large diversity in 2022 corn yield estimates across the U.S., with much lower yield projections in many of the drought-stricken States.
USDA is estimating a record 2022 corn yield in four States, including Iowa and Wisconsin. USDA is projecting Iowa’s 2022 average corn yield at 205 bushel per acre, which is the same as the record statewide yield of 205 bushels per acre in 2021. The 2022 projected corn yield would be well above the final 2020 corn yield of 178 bushels per acre that was greatly reduced by derecho windstorm that swept across Iowa that year. The Wisconsin corn yield for 2022 is projected at the record level of 185 bushels per acre, which compares to 180 bushels per acre in 2021.
USDA projects Minnesota’s 2022 average corn yield at 193 bushels per acre, which would represent an 8 percent increase from the average corn yield of 178 bushels per acre in 2021. The 2022 statewide average corn yield compares to previous statewide corn yields of 192 bushels per acre in 2020, and 173 bushels per acre in 2019. The State record corn yield remains at 197 bushels per acre in 2017. There is a wide range of expected corn yields depending on timely planting, favorable growing conditions, and developing drought conditions in portions of the State in early August.
Other 2022 corn yield estimate are Illinois at 203 bushels per acre, compared to 202 bushels per acre in 2021, Indiana at 189 bushels per acre, compared to 195 bushels per acre in 2021; and Ohio at 190 bushels per acre, compared to 193 bushels per acre in 2021. Nebraska is projected at 181 bushels per acre in 2022, which would be a 7 percent decline from 194 bushels per acre in 2021. North Dakota is estimated to have a 38 percent increase in the average statewide corn yield in 2022 at 145 bushels per acre, up from the drought-reduced yield of 105 bushels per acre in 2021. The 2022 corn yield in South Dakota is estimated at 147 bushels per acre, compared to 135 bushels per acre in 2021. 2022 projected corn yields were greatly reduced in the drought-stricken States of Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas.
The USDA Report on August 12 estimated total 2022 U.S. soybean production at 4.53 billion bushels, which would be up slightly from the 2021 production of slightly over 4.43 billion bushels and would be near the current record production level of 4.54 billion bushels in 2018. USDA is now estimating total 2022 harvested soybean acreage at 87.2 million acres, which compares to 86.3 million acres in 2021. USDA is projecting the 2022 U.S. average soybean yield at 51.9 bushels per acre, which is an increase from the 2021 national average yield of 51.4 bushels per acre and would potentially tie the record U.S. soybean yield of 51.9 bushels per acre in 2016. The 2022 estimated soybean yield compares to other recent national average soybean yields of 50.5 bushels per acre in 2020, 47.4 bushels per acre in 2019, 51.6 bushels per acre in 2018, and 49.1 bushels per acre in 2017.
The recent USDA report lists seven States that are likely to have a record statewide soybean yield in 2022, including the important production States of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. The estimated 2022 soybean yield in Illinois is 66 bushels per acre, compared to 64 bushels per acre in 2021; Indiana at 60 bushels per acre, compared to 59.5 bushels per acre in 2021; and Ohio at 57 bushels per acre, compared to 56.5 bushels per acre in 2021. Iowa’s 2022 soybean yield is projected to decline to 58 bushels per acre, down from the statewide record yield of 62 bushels per acre in 2021, Other recent Iowa soybean yields include 53 bushels per acre in 2020, 55 bushels per acre in 2019, and 57 bushels per acre in 2018. Soybean yield estimates for 2022 are also reduced in Nebraska soybean at 55 bushels per acre, compared to 63 bushels per acre in 2021, and Wisconsin at 52 bushels per acre, compared to 55 bushels per acre in 2021.
Minnesota’s 2022 average soybean yield is estimated at 50 bushels per acre, which compares to 47 bushels per acre in 2021, 49 bushels per acre in 2020, 44 bushels per acre in 2019, 48 bushels per acre in 2018 and the record State soybean yield of 52.5 bushels per acre in 2016. North Dakota is projected to have 37 percent increase in soybean yield in 2022 at 35 bushels per acre, compared to 25.5 bushels per acre in 2021. South Dakota’s yield is expected to increase to 43 bushels per acre in 2022, compared to 40 bushels per acre in 2021.
AUGUST 12 WASDE REPORT
The updated USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report was also released on August 12. This report included the 2022 estimated U.S. corn production of 14.36 billion bushels and harvested corn acreage of 81.8 million acres, along with the latest USDA corn yield projection of 175.4 bushels per acre. The 2022-23 corn ending stocks are now projected at 1.39 billion bushels, which was a decline of 82 million bushels from the July report. The corn ending stocks for 2021-22 were adjusted to just over 1.53 billion bushels, which was increased by 20 million bushels from the July estimate. The projected corn carryout levels compare to 2020-21 corn ending stocks of 1.23 billion bushels.
USDA is projecting an average on-farm corn price for the 2022-23 marketing year, which extends from September 1, 2022, through August 31, 2023, at $6.65 per bushel, which is unchanged from the July estimate. The 2021-22 national average corn price, which will be finalized on September 30, 2022, is now estimated at $5.95 per bushel. These estimates compare to recent national average prices of $4.53 per bushel for 2020-21, $3.56 per bushel for 2019-20, $3.61 per bushel for both 2018-19 and $3.36 per bushel for 2017-18.
The recent WASDE report projected the 2022 U.S. soybean production level of 4.53 billion bushels, based on 87.2 million harvested acres and an estimated U.S. soybean yield of 51.9 bushels per acre. The 2022-23 soybean ending stocks are now estimated at 245 million bushels, which an increase of 15 million bushels from the July WASDE report. The 2021-22 soybean ending stocks are projected at 225 million bushels. USDA is now projecting an average on-farm soybean price for the 2022-23 marketing year at $14.40 per bushel and at $13.30 per bushel for the 2021-22 marketing year. This compares to national average prices of $10.80 per bushel for 2020-21, $8.57 per bushel in 2019-20, $8.47 per bushel in 2018-19, and $9.33 in 2017-18.
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Note — For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst and Sr. Vice President, MinnStar Bank, Lake Crystal, MN. (Phone — (507) 381-7960) E-mail — kent.thiesse@minnstarbank.com) Web Site — http://www.minnstarbank.com/