June 18, 2018
JUNE 12 USDA REPORT LOWERS ENDING STOCKS
The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report released on June 12 lowered the projected ending stocks for corn and soybeans, both for the current year and for next year. The 2017-18 marketing year runs from September 1, 2017 to August 31, 2018, and the 2018-19 marketing year runs from September 1, 2018 through August 31, 2019. Grain marketing analysts generally viewed the June WASDE Report as “bullish” for both the corn and soybean markets; however, that marketing optimism turned “bearish” within a few days with the negative news on trade negotiations with China.
Following are some highlights of the latest USDA WASDE Report:
According to the June 12 WASDE Report, the projected corn ending stocks for the 2017-2018 year, which ends on August 31, 2018, are estimated at approximately 2.1 billion bushels, representing a reduction of 80 million bushels from the May estimate. The 2017-18 level of corn ending stocks compares to just over 2.29 billion bushels in 2016-17, and 1.73 billion bushels in both 2015-16 and 2014-15. The large level of the corn supply throughout most the 2017-18 marketing year has put downward pressure on cash corn market prices, and has kept the basis level quite wide between the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) prices and local cash grain bids. The projected reductions in the overall corn supply by the end of the 2018-19 marketing year offers some hope for future enhancements in corn market prices.
Based on the most recent WASDE Report, USDA is projecting the corn ending stocks to drop to 1.58 billion bushels by the end of the 2018-19 marketing year on August 31, 2019, which would result in the lowest corn carry-over level in five years. USDA left the estimated total U.S. corn production for 2018 at 14.04 billion bushels, which is the same as the May estimate, but would represent a decrease from 14.6 billion bushels in 2017, and the record U.S. production of 15.15 billion bushels in 2016. The U.S. corn yield for 2018 is currently estimated at 174 bushels per acre, which compares to the record U.S. corn yield of 176.6 bushels per acre in 2017, and to 174.6 bushels per acre in 2016.
The June 12 USDA Report kept the estimated the average U.S “on-farm” corn price for the 2017-18 marketing year at $3.40 per bushel, which is the same as the May estimate. The national on-farm corn price for the 2018-19 marketing year is now estimated in a range of $3.40 to $4.40 per bushel, or an average price of $3.90 per bushel. The most recent USDA corn price projections compare to final national average on-farm corn prices of $3.36 per bushel for 2016-17, $3.61 per bushel for 2015-16, and $3.70 per bushel in 2014-15.
According to the May 12 WASDE Report, the projected soybean ending stocks for 2017-18 were decreased by 25 million bushels to 505 million bushels; however, the level of ending stocks is still more than 200 million bushels above the soybean ending stocks a year ago. The projected 2017-18 soybean ending stocks level compares to carryover levels of 302 million bushels in 2016-17, 197 million bushels for 2015-16, and 191 million bushels for 2014-15. Based on the WASDE Report, soybean ending stocks for 2018-19 would be 385 million bushels, which was reduced by 30 million bushels from the May estimate. The projected reduction in the U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2017-18 is largely based on continued strong soybean export markets for the coming year.
The June 12 USDA Report estimated U.S on-farm soybean price for the 2017-18 marketing year at $9.40 per acre, which is an increase of $.05 per bushel from the May estimate. The 2018-19 on-farm soybean price is now estimated in a range from $8.75 to $11.25 per bushel, or an average price of $10.00 per bushel. The latest USDA soybean price projections compare to national average soybean prices of $9.50 per bushel for 2016-17, $8.95 per bushel in 2015-16, and $10.10 per bushel in 2014-15.
CHINA TRADE IMPACT
The somewhat “bullish” news in the soybean markets from the June 12 WASDE Report were quickly replaced by the very negative market news surrounding the deteriorating trade talks between the U.S. and China. Trade tensions between the two countries were quite high by the week ending June 15. China is proposing a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans and other agricultural products being imported from the U.S., which was in retaliation to proposed new tariffs being implemented by the U.S. on Chinese goods and services entering the U.S. The new tariffs being proposed by both countries are not scheduled to be implemented until sometime in mid-July.
In recent years, approximately half of the U.S. soybean production has been merchandized through various export markets, However, slightly over 60 percent of the U.S. soybean exports have been sold and shipped to China. So, the Chinese export business accounts for about one in every three acres of soybeans that is raised in U.S. each year, and results in approximately $14 billion annually in export value.
The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) November (2018) soybean futures price has declined from a close of $10.47 per bushel on May 24 to a close of $9.30 per bushel on June 15, which is a decline of $1.17 per bushel in a period of three weeks. New crop soybean price bids in Southern Minnesota for the Fall of 2018 have declined by a similar amount, and now range from $8.25 to $8.75 per bushel at most locations. That price reduction represents a gross income loss of $60 to $70 per acre for most soybean producers in the region. Soybean producers across the U.S. are hoping that there is some resolution to trade dispute between the U.S. and China, before an all-out “trade war” develops.
Note — For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst and Senior
Vice President, MinnStar Bank, Lake Crystal, MN. (Phone — (507) 381-7960);
E-mail — email@example.com)