As expected, the USDA Crop Production Report released on January 12 indicates that both the total corn production and soybean production in Minnesota and Iowa for 2015 were at record levels. The USDA Supply and Demand (WADSE) Report, which was also released on January 12, shows continued increases in the available stocks of both corn and soybeans, which will likely put continued pressure on corn and soybean market prices. Following are some highlights of the recent USDA Crop Production Report, as well as the latest WADSE Report :
According to the January 12 USDA Report, the total U.S, corn production for 2015 is estimated at near 13.60 billion bushels, which is 4.3 percent below the record 2014 total corn production of just over 14.21 billion bushels. The total U.S. corn production in other recent years was 13.83 billion bushels in 2013, 10.75 billion bushels in 2012, and 12.36 billion bushels in 2011. The nearly 88 million corn acres planted in 2015, compares to 90.6 million acres in 2014, 95.4 million acres in 2013, and 97.3 million acres in 2012, which was the highest on record in the U.S. since 1949. The total corn acres harvested for grain in 2015 was just over 80.7 million acres, compared to 83.1 million acres in 2014.
According to the January 12 WADSE Report, the corn ending stocks for 2015-16 are estimated at just over 1.80 billion bushels, which is above the 2014-15 estimated ending stocks of 1.73 billion bushels, and well above the 1.23 billion bushels in 2013-14, as well as, being more than double the 821 million bushels in 2012-2013. USDA is projecting that total U.S. corn use for 2015-2016 will be approximately 13.57 billion bushels for livestock feed, ethanol, food products, seed, exports, etc., which is down from 13.75 billion bushels in 2014-15, and just above the total usage of 13.45 billion bushels in 2013-14. The level of corn exports is expected to drop by 9 percent from a year earlier, with exports projected at 1.70 billion bushels for 2015-16, compared to 1.86 billion bushels in 2014-15.
USDA is projecting the 2015-16 market year average (MYA) corn price in a range of $3.30 to $3.90 per bushel, resulting in an average of $3.60 per bushel, which would be the lowest in several years. This compares to 12-month MYA corn prices of $3.70 per bushel for 2014-15, $4.46 per bushel for 2013-14, $6.89 per bushel for 2012-13, and $6.22 per year bushel for 2011-12. The 12-month MYA price for the 2015 crop year will be calculated from September 1, 2015 through August 31, 2016.
According to the January 12 USDA Report, total U.S. soybean production for 2015 is estimated at 3.93 billion bushels, which is nearly the same as the 2014 production level, and compares to 3.36 billion bushels in 2013, and 3.04 billion bushels in 2012. The total harvested soybean acreage in 2015 was at just over 81.8 million acres, down from the 2014 record level of nearly 82.6 million acres.
The USDA Report is projecting soybean ending stocks for 2015-16 at 440 million bushels, which is up significantly from the carryover levels of 191 million bushels in 2014-15, and 92 million bushels for 2013-2014. Total soybean usage for 2015-16 is estimated at 3.71 billion bushels, down slightly from 2014-15. The level of soybean exports is estimated at 1.69 million bushels, which is a decline of 9 percent from a year earlier. USDA is now estimating the 2015-16 average MYA soybean price in a range of $8.05-$9.55 per bushel, or an average price of $8.80 per bushel. This compares to 12-month MYA soybean prices of $10.10 per bushel for 2014-15, and $13.00 per bushel for 2013-14.
2015 Crop Yields
The National average corn yield for 2015 is estimated at 168.4 bushels per acre, which was a decrease of 0.9 bushels per acre from the previous USDA Report, but is still the second highest U.S. corn yield in history. The record U.S. corn yield was 171 bushels per acre in 2014. The 2015 U.S. corn yield compares to other recent average corn yields of 158.1 bushels per acre in 2013, 123.1 in the drought year of 2012, and 147.2 bushels per acre in 2011.
The average corn yield for Minnesota in 2015 is estimated at the record level of 188 bushels per acre, which is 11 bushels per acre above the previous State record yield of 177 bushels per acre in 2010. The estimated 2015 State corn yield is up significantly from the 2014 State corn yield of 156 bushels per acre, and the 2013 average yield of 159 bushels per acre. Iowa had an estimated record corn yield of 192 bushels per acre for 2015, which is 10 bushels per acre above the previous State record corn yield of 182 bushels per acre in 2009. The 2015 Iowa corn yield represents a substantial increase from the 2014 average yield of 178 bushels per acre, and the 2013 average yield of 164 bushels per acre. The average 2015 corn yields in other major corn production States were Illinois at 175 bushels per acre, down from 200 bushels per acre in 2014, Indiana at 150 bushels per acre, down from 188 bushels per acre in 2014, Nebraska at 185 bushels per acre, up from 179 bushels per acre in 2014, and South Dakota at 159 bushels per acre, up from 148 bushels per acre in 2014.
The U.S. average soybean yield in 2015 is estimated at the record level of 48 bushels per acre, which is just above the previous record yield of 47.5 bushels per acre in 2014. The 2015 U.S. soybean yield is well above the average soybean yields of 44 bushels per acre in 2013, 40 bushels per acre in 2012, and 41.9 bushels per acre in 2011. The estimated average soybean yield in Minnesota for 2015 is at the record level of 50 bushels per acre, which is 5 bushels per acre higher than the previous State record yield of 45 bushels per acre in 2010. The 2015 Minnesota soybean yield compares to 41.5 bushels per acre in 2014, and 42 bushels per acre in 2013. The average soybean yield for 2015 in Iowa is estimated at the record level of 56.5 bushels per acre, which compares to 51 bushels per acre in 2014, and 45.5 bushels per acre in 2013. The estimated average 2014 soybean yields in other major production States were Illinois at 56 bushels per acre, Indiana at 50 bushels per acre, Nebraska at 58 bushels per acre, and South Dakota at 46 bushels per acre.
Note — For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst and Vice President, MinnStar Bank, Lake Crystal, Minnesota. Phone: (507) 381-7960); Email: email@example.com; Web Site: www.minnstarbank.com