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January 10 USDA Reports

Written by: Kent Thiesse

As expected, the USDA Crop Production Report released on January 10 indicates that the total U.S. corn production for 2013 will increase significantly, and the 2013 soybean production will increase moderately, as compared to production levels in 2012. The final national average yields per acre for corn and soybeans in 2013 are also expected be significantly higher than the drought-reduced 2012 yields. Following are some highlights of the latest USDA Crop Report, as well as the latest Supply and Demand (WADSE) Report :

 

CORN :

According to the January 10 USDA Report, the total U.S, corn production for 2013 is estimated at just over 13.92 billion bushels, an increase of nearly 38 percent from the 2012 total corn production of slightly above 10.78 billion bushels. The total U.S. corn production in other recent years was 12.36 billion bushels in 2011, 12.5 billion bushels in 2010, and 13.1 billion bushels in 2009. The 95.4 million corn acres planted in 2013, compares to 97.1 million acres in 2012, which was the highest on record in the U.S. since 1949. The total corn acres harvested for grain in 2013 was 87.7 million acres.

 

According to the January 10 USDA Report, the projected corn ending stocks for 2013-14 are estimated at a level of 1.63 billion bushels, which is well above the 2012-13 estimated ending stocks of 821 million bushels, as well as the corn ending stocks of 989 million bushels in 2011-2012. USDA is projecting that total U.S. corn use for 2013-2014 will be approximately 13.15 billion bushels for livestock feed, ethanol, food products, seed, exports, etc., which is up significantly from 11.11 billion bushels in 2012-13, and higher than total usage of 12.5 billion bushels in 2011-12. The current estimated corn “stocks-to-use” ratio for 2013-14 is at about 12.4 percent, which is a big increase from the corn “stocks-to-use” ratio of near 5 percent that existed a year ago at this time.

 

USDA is now projecting a national average corn price of $4.40 per bushel for 2013-14, which would be the lowest 12-month national average corn price in several years. This compares to an estimated 12-month average farm price of $6.89 per bushel for 2012-13 and $6.22 per bushel for 2011-12. The 12-month national average farm price will be calculated from September 1, 2013 through August 31, 2014, and is for the 2013 crop year, and not the 2014 production year. 

 

SOYBEANS :

According to the January 10 USDA Report, total U.S. soybean production for 2013 is estimated at near 3.29 billion bushels, which compares to 3.03 billion bushels in 2012, and 3.09 billion bushels in 2011. The total harvested soybean acreage in 2013 was near 75.9 million acres, down from the 2012 level of 76.2 million acres, as well as the record of 76.6 million acres in 2010. 

 

The USDA Report is projecting soybean ending stocks for 2013-14 at 150 million bushels, which is up from the carryover level of 141 million bushels in 2012-2013, but is below the ending stocks of 169 million bushels in 2011-2012. Total soybean usage for 2013-14 is estimated at 3.3 billion bushels, up slightly from 2012-13. The current soybean “stocks-to-use” ratio is now near 4.5 percent, which is similar to recent years. USDA is now estimating the U.S “on-farm” soybean price for 2013-14 in a range of $11.75-$13.25 per bushel, or an average price of $12.50 per bushel. This compares to an estimated average farm price of $14.40 per bushel for 2012-13 and $12.50 per bushel for 2011-12. 

 

2013 CROP YIELDS :

The National average corn yield for 2013 is now estimated at 158.8 bushels per acre, which was a decrease of 1.6 bushels per acre from the previous USDA Report, but represents a increase of over 28 percent from the drought-reduced U.S. corn yield of 123.4 bushels per acre in 2012. The 2013 U.S. corn yield compares to other recent average corn yields of 147.2 bushels per acre in 2011, 152.8 bushels per acre in 2010, and the U.S. record yield of 164.7 bushels per acre in 2009.

 

The average corn yield for Minnesota in 2013 is now estimated at 160 bushels per acre, which was a reduction of 4 bushels per acre from the previous USDA Report. The estimated 2013 state corn yield down from the 2012 average yield of 165 bushels per acre, but is above the 2011 yield of 156 bushel per acre; however, is still well below the state record corn yield of 177 bushels per acre in 2010. Iowa had an estimated corn yield of 165 bushels per acre for 2013, which is up significantly from the 2012 average corn yield of 137 bushels per acre, but is below 172 bushels per acre in 2011, as well as the state record yield of 182 bushels per acre in 2009. The average 2013 corn yields in other major corn production States were Illinois at 178 bushels per acre, Indiana at 177 bushels per acre, Nebraska at 170 bushels per acre, and South Dakota at 138 bushels per acre. 2013 corn yields in all major corn producing states, except Minnesota, were increased considerably from the drought-reduced yield levels in 2012.

 

The U.S. average soybean yield in 2013 was estimated at 43.3 bushels per acre, which is well above the soybean yield of 39.8 bushels per acre in 2012, and is also above the 2011 yield of 41.9 bushels per acre, but is below the U.S. record soybean yield of 44.0 bushels per acre in 2009. The estimated average soybean yield in Minnesota for 2013 was 41 bushels per acre, which is down from the 2012 yield of 43.5 bushels per acre, but is above the 2011 average yield of 39 bushels per acre, and is well below the State record soybean yield of 45 bushels per acre in 2010. The average soybean yield for 2013 in Iowa was estimated at 44.5 bushels per acre, which is the same as the 2012 state average yield, but is well below the 2011 and 2010 state average yields of over 51 bushels per acre. The estimated average 2013 soybean yields in other major production States were Illinois at 49 bushels per acre, Indiana at 51 bushels per acre, Nebraska at 53 bushels per acre, and South Dakota at 40 bushels per acre, all of which are well above the drought-reduced 2012 soybean yield levels.