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Sept. 12 USDA Crop Report

Written by: Kent Thiesse

The USDA Crop Production Report released on September 12 made a slight increase in the expected U.S. corn production for 2013, as compared to the August USDA Report, while making a 3 percent reduction in estimated 2013 U.S. soybean production. USDA is now estimating total 2013 corn production at 13.8 billion bushels, which if realized, would result a new record for annual U.S. corn production. Total U.S. corn production was 10.8 billion bushels in the drought year of 2012, 12.3 billion bushels in 2011, and 12.5 billion bushels in 2010. USDA left the anticipated harvested corn acres at 89.1 million acres, which is unchanged from the August 1 estimate.

 

USDA is now estimating the 2013 average U.S. corn yield at 155.3 bushels per acre, which is up slightly from the August estimate of 154.4 bushels per acre. The 2013 projected national average corn yield would be well above the drought reduced corn yield of 123.4 bushels per acre, and also would be higher  the 2011 U.S. corn yield of 147.2 bushels per acre, as well as the 2010 U.S. corn yield of 152.8 bushels per acre. The record U.S. average corn yield was 164.7 bushels per acre in 2009. The increased U.S. corn yield expectations by USDA are due to very favorable weather conditions in the Western Corn Belt and the Southern states late in the 2013 growing season.

 

The USDA Report is now estimating total soybean production in 2013 at 3.15 billion bushels,  compared to the August 1 soybean production estimate of 3.26 billion bushels. Total U.S. soybean production was 3.01 billion bushels in 2012, 3.06 billion bushels in 2011, and 3.33 billion bushels in 2010. The average U.S. soybean yield for 2013 is now estimated at 41.2 bushels per acre, which down from the August USDA estimate of 42.6 bushels per acre. The 2013 soybean yield estimate is still above the drought reduced 2012 U.S. soybean yield of 39.6 bushels per acre, but would be slightly below the 2011 U.S. soybean yield of 41.5 bushels per acre, and well below the 2010 national soybean yield of 43.5 bushels per acre. The record U.S. soybean yield was 44.0 bushels per acre in 2009. 

 

Based on the September 12 Report, USDA is estimating the 2013 corn yield in Minnesota at 166 bushels per acre, which is the same as the August estimate, which compares to statewide corn yields of 165 bushels per acre in 2012, 156 bushels per acre in 2011, and a record corn yield of 177 bushels per acre in 2010. USDA is now estimating the 2013 average corn yield in Iowa to be 162 bushels per acre, which is well above the 2012 corn yield of 142 bushels per acre, but well below the 2011 corn yield of 172 bushels per acre, and the record average state corn yield of 182 bushels per acre in 2008. Illinois is projected to have a 2013 average corn yield of 165 bushels per acre, compared to 105 bushels per acre in 2012. Other 2013 estimated corn yields are 166 bushels per acre for Indiana, compared to 99 bushels per acre in 2012; 164 bushels per acre in Nebraska, compared to 142 bushels per acre in 2012; and 145 bushels per acre in South Dakota, compared to 101 bushels per acre in 2012.

 

The September 12 Report estimated the 2013 Minnesota soybean yield at 39 bushels per acre, which is below the 2012 Statewide soybean yield of 41.5 bushels per acre, and only slightly above the  2011 yield of 38.5 bushels per acre. The Minnesota record average soybean yield of 45 bushels per acre in 2010. The 2013 Iowa soybean yield is estimated at 43 bushels per acre, which is lower than the average yield of 44.5 bushels per acre in 2012. Other 2013 state average soybean yields are Illinois at 46 bushels per acre, compared to 43 bushels per acre in 2012; Indiana at 48 bushels per acre, compared to 43.5 bushels per acre in 2012; Nebraska at 47 bushels per acre, compared to 41.5 bushels per acre in 2012; and South Dakota at 35 bushels per acre, compared to 30 bushels per acre in 2012.

 

 

PROJECTED  2012-2013  CARRYOVER  STOCKS

 

USDA also released the World Supply Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WADSE) on September 12, which includes the latest estimates for 2013-2014 carryover stocks of corn, soybeans, and other grains. USDA is now estimating 2013-2014 U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.85 billion bushels, which is an increase of 18 million bushels from to the August 1 carryover estimate, and would leave U.S. corn stocks on August 31, 2014, at the highest level for that date in recent years. The expected 2012-2013 final corn ending stocks are now estimated at 661 million bushels, which compares to the final 2011-2012 corn carryover stocks of 989 million bushels. The level of projected 2012-13 ending stocks was decreased by 58 million bushels from the August estimate, due to increased corn usage for livestock feed, industrial use, and ethanol production, as well as higher export levels. The USDA marketing year runs from September 1 to August 31 each year. 

 

USDA is expecting 2013-2014 soybean carryover stocks to be 150 million bushels, which is down significantly from the August 1 estimate of 220 million bushels, mainly due to lower 2013 soybean production estimates. The final 2012-2013 final soybean ending stocks are projected at 125 million bushels, which compares to the final ending stocks of 169 million bushels in 2011-2012. The latest USDA estimates would result in projected 2013-2014 soybean ending stocks still being at very tight levels heading into the 2014 growing season. The estimated 2013-2014 ending stocks for corn and soybeans represent about 53 days of usage for corn and 17 days of usage for soybeans, based on current corn and soybean use estimates in the U.S. for 2013-2014.

 

USDA is currently estimating the U.S average cash corn price for the 2013-2014 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) in a range of $4.40 - $5.20 per bushel, or an average of $4.80 per bushel, which was a decrease of $.10 per bushel from August estimates. The final U.S. average corn price is currently estimated at $6.90 per bushel for 2012-2013, compared to $6.22 per bushel for 2011-2012, $5.18 per bushel for 2010-2011, and $3.55 per bushel in 2009-2010. 

 

USDA is projecting the U.S. average cash soybean price for 2013-2014 in a range of $11.50 - $13.50 per bushel, resulting in an average soybean price of $12.50 per bushel, which is an increase of $1.15 per bushel from the August estimates. The final U.S. average soybean price for 2012-2013 is currently estimated at $14.40 per bushel, compared to $12.50 per bushel for 2011-12, $11.30 per bushel for 2010-2011, and $9.59 per bushel for 2009-2010.