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September 12 USDA Crop Report

Written by: Kent Thiesse

The USDA Crop Report released on September 12 made a slight decrease in the expected U.S. corn and soybean production for 2012, as compared to the August USDA estimates, reflecting the severity of the 2012 drought in many areas of the U.S. USDA is now estimating the total 2012 corn production at 10.7 billion bushels, which slightly below the 10.8 billion bushel estimate in August. Total U.S. corn production was 12.3 billion bushels in 2011, 12.5 billion bushels in 2010, and 13.1 billion bushels in 2009. If the 2012 projections hold up, this would be the lowest total U.S. corn production since 2006.

 

USDA is now estimating the 2012 average U.S. corn yield at 122.8 bushels per acre, which is down slightly from the August estimate of 123.4 bushels per acre, and would be the lowest average U.S. corn yield since 1995. The 2012 projected national average corn yield would be well below the 2011 U.S. corn yield of 147.2 bushels per acre, or the 2010 U.S. corn yield of 152.8 bushels per acre. The record U.S. average corn yield was 164.7 bushels per acre in 2009. The decreased U.S. corn yield expectations by USDA are due to extended drought conditions that have persisted in large areas of the Corn Belt and the Great Plains States during much of the 2012 growing season.

 

The USDA Report is estimating total soybean production in 2012 at 2.63 billion bushels, which is also a slight decrease compared to the 2.69 billion bushel estimate in August. Total U.S. soybean production was 3.06 billion bushels in 2011, 3.33 billion bushels in 2010, and 3.36 billion bushels in 2009. The average U.S. soybean yield for 2012 is now estimated at 35.3 bushels per acre, which down from the August USDA estimate of 36.1 bushels per acre. The 2012 soybean yield estimate is well below the 2011 U.S. soybean yield of 41.5 Bushels per acre, or the 2010 national soybean yield of 43.5 bushels per acre. The record U.S. soybean yield was 44.0 bushels per acre in 2009. 

 

Based on the September 12 Report, USDA is estimating the 2012 corn yield in Minnesota at 156 bushels per acre, which is 1 bushel above the August estimate, and is the same as the 2011 statewide corn yield, but is well below the 2010 record corn yield of 177 bushels per acre. USDA is estimating the 2012 average corn yield in Iowa to be 140 bushels per acre, which is well below the 2011 corn yield of 172 bushels per acre, or the record average state corn yield of 182 bushels per acre in 2008. Illinois is projected to have a 2012 average corn yield of 110 bushels per acre, compared to 157 bushels per acre in 2011. Other 2012 estimated corn yields are 100 bushels per acre for Indiana, compared to 146 bushels per acre in 2011; 145 bushels per acre in Nebraska, compared to 160 bushels per acre in 2011; and 96 bushels per acre in South Dakota, compared to 132 bushels per acre in 2011.

 

The September 12 USDA Report estimated the 2012 Minnesota soybean yield 38 bushels per acre, which is slightly below the 2011 statewide soybean yield of 38.5 bushels per acre, and much lower than the 2010 record state average soybean yield of 45 bushels per acre. The projected 2011 Iowa soybean yield is estimated at 39 bushels per acre, which compares to an average yield of 50.5 bushels per acre in 2011. The estimated 2012 average soybean yield in Illinois is 37 bushels per acre, which compares to 47 bushels per acre in 2011. Other 2012 state average soybean yields are Indiana at 37 bushels per acre, compared to 45 bushels per acre in 2011; Nebraska at 40 bushels per acre, compared to 53.5 bushels per acre in 2011; and South Dakota at 28 bushels per acre, compared to 37 bushels per acre in 2011.

 

 

PROJECTED  2012-2013 CARRYOVER  STOCKS

USDA also released the latest estimates for 2012-2013 carryover stocks of corn, soybeans, and other grains on September 12. USDA is now estimating 2012-2013 U.S. corn ending stocks at 733 million bushels, which is an increase of 83 million bushels from to the August 1 carryover estimate, but would still leave U.S. corn stocks very tight. The expected 2011-2012 final corn ending stocks are estimated at 1.18 billion bushels, which is slightly above the final 2010-2011 corn carryover stocks of 1.12 billion bushels. The level of projected 2011-12 ending stocks was increased by 160 million bushels from the August estimate, due to decreased feed usage, lower export levels, and more new-crop corn available for use prior to September 1, as a result of the early harvest in 2012. The USDA marketing year runs from September 1 to August 31 each year.  

 

USDA is expecting 2012-2013 soybean carryover stocks to be 115 million bushels, which is the same as the August 1 estimate. The final 2011-2012 final soybean ending stocks are projected at 130 million bushels, which compares to the final ending stocks of 215 million bushels in 2010-2011. The projected 2012-2013 soybean ending stocks would be at the lowest level in nine years, since the 2003-2004 USDA marketing year. The estimated 2012-2013 ending stocks for corn and soybeans represent about 24 days of usage for corn and 16 days of usage for soybeans, based on current corn and soybean use estimates in the U.S. for 2012-2013.

 

USDA is currently estimating the U.S average cash corn price for the 2012-2013 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) in a range of $7.20 - $8.60 per bushel, or an average of $7.90 per bushel, which was a decrease of $.30 per bushel from August estimates. The final U.S. average corn price is currently estimated at $6.25 per bushel for 2011-2012, compared to $5.18 per bushel for 2010-2011, $3.55 per bushel in 2009-2010, and $4.06 per bushel in 2008-2009.

 

USDA is projecting the U.S. average cash soybean price for 2012-2013 in a range of $15.00 - $17.00 per bushel, resulting in an average soybean price of $16.00 per bushel, which is the same as the August estimates. The final U.S. average soybean price for 2011-2012 is currently estimated at $12.45 per bushel, compared to $11.30 per bushel for 2010-2011, $9.59 per bushel for 2009-2010, and $9.97 per bushel for 2008-2009.